Investment Thesis Construction OS
Turn a folder of research notes into a thesis you can actually be wrong about: one falsifiable core claim, the mechanism chain behind it, base-rate reality checks on every link, the disconfirming evidence you would need to see, numeric kill criteria with action tiers, and a monitoring schedule that tells you when the thesis has broken. A structuring system for your own analysis — not investment advice.
A 4-step agentic workflow pack for finance built to run with ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. Open the Markdown files, fill the variables, and paste into your model. Most buyers get a reviewable result in about 90 minutes.
- Compress messy research notes into one sentence you could later be proven wrong about
- Expose the mechanism chain link by link, with evidence scored 1-5 against explicit anchors
- Name your real edge honestly - information, analytical, time horizon, behavioral, or none
- Reality check every link against its reference class before conviction hardens
- Generate the disconfirming observations you would need to see, with sources and timing
- Convert soft doubts into numbered kill criteria with four pre-committed action tiers
- Build a monitoring schedule with named owners, so a dying thesis surfaces on a calendar
- Every prompt ends with an explicit not-investment-advice scope notice
Prompt Customization Service — optional help adapting variables and output to your brand voice. Choose your tier at checkout (not tied to this prompt's price).
This pack is $10 on its own. Buying every pack separately costs $1538. The Lifetime Bundle is $149 one-time — you save $1389 (90% off) and unlock every future pack free.
Get the Lifetime Bundle — $149Paste the license key from your receipt. It must match this prompt pack.
What ships with your purchase
Prompt files
Plain Markdown files with `{{variables}}` you fill in, ready to paste into ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini. No setup, no tooling required.
Usage guide
Variable reference, model compatibility, examples, and customization tips so you can adapt the pack to your brand voice.
Lifetime updates
When we improve the pack, you get the new version automatically. Email support included with every purchase.
Works with: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini.
The workflow inside this pack
4 composable prompts you run in order — each one picks up where the last left off.
- Step 1
Thesis Statement & Variant Perception Builder
Paste your research notes, what you think consensus believes, and your holding period
- Step 2 · optional
Base-Rate & Disconfirming-Evidence Test
Paste the thesis and mechanism chain from the first prompt, plus any historical data and opposing material you hold
- Step 3 · optional
Kill Criteria & Position Sizing Logic
Paste the disconfirmer catalog, your own mandate constraints, and what correlated exposure you already hold
- Step 4 · optional
Thesis Monitoring & Review Cadence
Paste the kill criteria register, the implied measurables, and the sources you can realistically check
Perpetual (lifetime) use license
Your one-time purchase includes an ongoing right to use this prompt pack with the AI tools and models you control for your own and your clients' work — not for resale or public redistribution of the files as a product.
We keep the copyright
The prompt files, guides, examples, and bundled assets stay our copyrighted works (or our licensors'). Payment grants the limited license in our Terms only — it does not transfer ownership.
Need help adapting this prompt to your team? Add Prompt Customization Service at checkout.